My prediction turned out to be correct, however it looked like Joomla! 1.0 wasn’t going to give up the fight easily. I concluded that the further uptake for 1.5 would depend on an increase in native and stable extensions and an announcement about the end of life of Joomla! 1.0.
Over the last months the number of new native extensions has been growing rapidly, for August the extensions directory team reported that about 75% of new extensions where native Joomla! 1.5 extensions. A quick search on the extension directory shows that 30% of all component are now Joomla! 1.5 native.
People are also slowly making the switch from Joomla! 1.0 to Joomla! 1.5 only, a good example are the guys over at Yootheme. A while ago they announced they where switching their templates completely to Joomla! 1.5 a few weeks ago they also released ‘teamlog’ a 1.5 native project management extension and from what I have heard there are more extensions on the way.
Let’s have a look at the downloads for the last months and see if we can make any new predictions.
The below graph is showing the monthly download statistics for both Joomla! 1.0 and 1.5.
- Joomla! 1.5 is seeing a large increase in downloads since May 2008, while downloads for 1.0 are decreasing rapidly.
- Total amount of downloads are holding steady at 400k downloads a month.
What does this tell s about the uptake of Joomla! 1.5 ? For that we need to have a look at the following graph.
- The graph shows a steady 10% increase of 1.5 downloads in regards to 1.0 since June 2008.
- The graph show the percentage share for both technologies is now at 88% for 1.5 and 12% for 1.0.
Based on this data I predict that Joomla! 1.0 will be reaching the end of it’s life around the beginning of 2009. Time for the project to bite the bullet and set a date : 03/06/09, or March 6, 2009, 3 years and 6 months after the release of 1.0 seems like the perfect date to me. What do you think ?